Benefit of Topical Combination Therapy for Acne: Analyzing Effect Size Using Number Needed to Treat

February 2024 | Volume 23 | Issue 2 | 42 | Copyright © February 2024


Published online January 30, 2024

Steven R. Feldman MD PhDa, George Han MD PhDb, Valerie D. Callender MDc,d, Leon H. Kircik MDe,f,g, Neal Bhatia MDh, Stephen K. Tyring MD PhDi, Joshua A. Zeichner MDe, Linda Stein Gold MDj

aWake Forest School of Medicine, Winston-Salem, NC
bDonald and Barbara Zucker School of Medicine at Hofstra/Northwell, New Hyde Park, New York, NY
cHoward University College of Medicine, Washington, DC
dCallender Dermatology and Cosmetic Center, Glenn Dale, MD
eIcahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai, New York, N
fIndiana University School of Medicine, Indianapolis, IN
gPhysicians Skin Care, PLLC, DermResearch, PLLC, and Skin Sciences, PLLC, Louisville, KY
hTherapeutics Clinical Research, San Diego, CA
iUniversity of Texas Health Science Center, Houston, TX
jHenry Ford Hospital, Detroit, MI

Abstract
Background: Topical acne trials often are confounded by high vehicle response rates and differing outcome measures, making it difficult to compare treatments. Number needed to treat (NNT) can be a simple, clinically meaningful way to indirectly compare treatment options without head-to-head data. NNT is the number of patients who need to be treated with an intervention to observe one additional patient successfully achieving a desired outcome versus vehicle/placebo. While treatment attributes such as adverse events may not be captured, lower NNT is a good indicator of a more effective treatment.
Methods: Following a search of combination topical treatments for acne vulgaris, all treatments that reported pivotal trial efficacy data consistent with the 2018 FDA definition of success were included in NNT analyses. 
Results: Of 13 treatments, 7 reported 12-week treatment success rates in 11 phase 3 trials, with similar baseline demographics/disease severity. Treatment success ranged from 26.8% with tretinoin 0.1%/benzoyl peroxide (BPO) 3% cream to 50% with triple-combination clindamycin phosphate 1.2%/adapalene 0.15%/BPO 3.1% gel. NNTs for the triple-combination gel were 4 and 5 (from 2 pivotal trials). Adapalene 0.3%/BPO 2.5% gel had an NNT of 5. Tretinoin/BPO had the largest range between trials, with NNTs of 4 and 9. The other 4 treatments had NNTs ranging from 6 to 8.
Conclusion: A comparison of combination topical acne treatment trial data, using the same treatment outcome and similar patient populations, resulted in triple-combination clindamycin phosphate/adapalene/BPO gel and adapalene/BPO gel having the most favorable NNTs.

J Drugs Dermatol. 2024;23(2):42-49.  doi:10.36849/JDD.7927

INTRODUCTION

Assuming comparable safety and tolerability, patients and healthcare providers strive to choose the most effective treatment for any given condition. For conditions with multiple treatment options, this requires evaluating the relative effectiveness of each. In the absence of head-to-head trials, a common measure of comparative clinical effectiveness is the number needed to treat (NNT).1-3 NNT is a way to provide a clinically useful measure of treatment effect and indirectly compare data across randomized double-blind controlled trials.2,4 Assuming other treatment-related considerations are equal (eg, side effect profile, cost, access), choosing a treatment with the lowest NNT would be a reasonable approach, as this may denote the highest efficacy in attaining a treatment outcome.

The NNT is the reciprocal value of the absolute risk reduction (ARR; Figure 1). More than P values and responder rates, NNT is a clinically intuitive way to determine if one treatment is better than another in a way that is likely to be noticed in routine clinical practice.2 However, the clinical relevance of an NNT is not just based on the number. Acceptable NNTs vary widely by disease and are dictated by many factors, such as severity, epidemiology, and treatability.3 

In the acne vulgaris literature, NNTs are rarely reported; while there is an example of NNT used as an outcome measure of treatment efficacy,5 NNTs are more frequently calculated in secondary sources such as review articles.6-9 In these publications, NNTs for acne treatments were less than 10 but