Elevated Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease Risk in Fibrotic Skin Diseases: Insights From a TriNetX Cohort Study

November 2025 | Volume 24 | Issue 11 | 8991 | Copyright © November 2025


Published online October 30, 2025

Neal Gupta MDa,b, Kayla Zafar BAa,c, Jennifer Wang BAa,b, David Bitterman BAa,e, Maile Ray D.Sc MPHd, Ashley Shayya MPHd, Sandra McGinnis PhDd, Jared Jagdeo MD MSa,b

aDermatology Service, Veterans Affairs New York Harbor Healthcare System - Brooklyn Campus, Brooklyn, NY
bDepartment of Dermatology, State University of New York, Downstate Health Sciences University, Brooklyn, NY
cSt. George’s University School of Medicine, Grenada, West Indies
dCenter for Human Services Research, State University of New York, University at Albany, Albany, NY
eNew York Medical College, Valhalla, NY

Abstract
Background: Identifying the risk of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) is a cornerstone of preventive medical care. Despite its significance, limited research has explored ASCVD risk in individuals with fibrotic skin diseases. This study aims to evaluate the risk of ASCVD in patients diagnosed with fibrotic skin conditions.
Methods: We utilized the TriNetX platform to analyze ASCVD risk associated with fibrotic skin conditions. Propensity score-matched (PSM) cohorts were constructed to adjust for confounding. Hazard ratios (HRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated using Cox proportional hazards regression.
Results: Patients with fibrotic skin diseases demonstrated an elevated risk of ASCVD. Scleroderma was most strongly associated with ASCVD risk (HR 2.51 [95% CI: 1.97,3.21]), followed by hypertrophic scar (HR 1.40 [95% CI: 1.20,1.63]). Elevated risks were also observed for morphea (HR 1.36 [95% CI: 1.03,1.08]) and lichen sclerosis (HR 1.30 [95% CI: 1.04,1.62]).
Conclusion: Individuals with fibrotic skin conditions, including scleroderma, hypertrophic scars, morphea, and lichen sclerosis, demonstrate an increased risk of ASCVD. These findings highlight the significance of recognizing fibrotic skin diseases as possible indicators of systemic inflammation.

 

INTRODUCTION

Atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) is the leading cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide and demands early identification and tailored risk reduction strategies.1 Randomized controlled trials have established the efficacy of certain medication classes, such as statins, in reducing ASCVD events irrespective of baseline lipid values.2 These findings have resulted in a shift in prescribing practices, emphasizing the importance of personalized risk stratification and management for primary event prevention.3

Assessing an individual's risk for ASCVD involves a comprehensive assessment of multiple comorbid conditions, with the goal of tailoring therapies to reduce their risk.4 For patients seeking to understand their ASCVD risk, a clinician can use a risk calculator, such as the one provided by the American Heart Association, to estimate their 10-year ASCVD risk. This tool incorporates variables such as age, gender, and the presence of major risk factors like diabetes or hypertension.5 Based on the results, targeted risk-reduction interventions, including the prescription of appropriate medications, can be offered to mitigate the risk of primary ASCVD events.6

The link between chronic inflammation and ASCVD is well established, yet the specific risk in patients with fibrotic skin diseases is underexplored. While inflammatory conditions like psoriasis have been extensively studied, research on fibrotic diseases is limited, often focusing on general cardiovascular complications rather than ASCVD.

To address this gap, we conducted a multi-center retrospective cohort study using the TriNetX Research Network to evaluate the risk of ASCVD events among patients with fibrotic skin conditions. Our study was designed based on established ASCVD risk calculators, controlling for comorbidities such as diabetes mellitus and hypertension, while estimating 10-year ASCVD risk.7 Propensity score matching was employed to account for these comorbidities. We hypothesized that certain fibrotic skin diseases may independently elevate ASCVD risk, irrespective of comorbidities.

To simulate a real-world ASCVD risk assessment, we compared outcomes between two cohorts of 50-year-old patients: one cohort with fibrotic skin conditions and another consisting of